Segmentation, ESG and selective growth: What's next for residential in Poland?

How do you assess the overall outlook for the Polish residential market in 2026, and which segments do you expect to outperform?

The outlook for the Polish residential market in 2026 is fundamentally solid, marking a transition from a 'wait-and-see' phase into a more constructive environment of mature stabilisation. After years of volatility, we are seeing a move towards much-needed rebalancing of supply and demand. This shift is underpinned by improving mortgage affordability, as the easing of interest rates—with the NBP reference rate currently at 4.00%—has materially enhanced buyer sentiment compared to previous years.

While we anticipate a gradual return to price growth later in 2026 as developers calibrate supply as well as sell out outstanding stock surplus, this growth will be more sustainable and moderate than the sharp spikes of earlier cycles. The market will, however, be highly segmented, with a clear performance gap between prime, well-connected urban hubs and peripheral locations, with top-tier cities strengthening and a slower recovery of less prospective ones.

In my view, the segments poised to outperform the broader market include:

• Premium and Mid-High Segments: Demand in these brackets remains resilient as high-net-worth individuals and stable professionals continue to prioritise real estate as a primary hedge against inflation.
• Strategic Mid-Market Projects: Specifically in the largest job hubs—Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tri-City — where demand is structurally supported by demographics, inward migration, and a persistent housing gap.
• Energy-Efficient New Builds: As buyers become more sophisticated, the 'total cost of occupancy' is becoming a decisive factor. Projects that offer lower heating and energy bills through sustainable technology will see superior absorption rates.
• The Broader 'Living' Sector: Institutional Private Rental Sector, along with student accommodation and senior housing, remains a major growth driver. Affordability constraints and shifting lifestyle preferences continue to fuel the professionalisation of the rental market, driving institutional liquidity and scaling up portfolio transactions.
• Compact, Flexible Apartments: Units in the 40–60 sqm range in cities with strong labour markets and universities remain the 'sweet spot,' matching both current affordability constraints and modern lifestyle patterns.

Sustainability and pro-environmental solutions have been central to Acciona's approach. How do you see demand for green building features evolving in 2026, and how will that shape your projects?

By 2026, sustainability has fully transitioned from a niche 'nice-to-have' feature to a fundamental baseline expectation for both individual buyers and institutional investors in Poland. We are seeing a market where 'green' is no longer judged by marketing claims, but by measurable performance benchmarks—energy use, durability, and lifecycle comfort—aligned with evolving EU building policies and the EU Taxonomy.

This shift in 2026 is being accelerated by two primary forces:

• Buyer Economics & Environmental Literacy: As energy costs remain a critical concern, buyers are increasingly evaluating the 'total cost of ownership.' Features like high-performance building envelopes, heat pumps, and PV installations are now viewed as 'standard equipment' that directly impacts monthly household budgets.
• Capital Markets & Regulation: Energy performance and ESG alignment have become 'hard currency' in financing and valuation discussions. Projects failing to meet these standards face significant hurdles in securing competitive capital.

How does this shape Acciona's projects in 2026?

For Acciona, this evolution reinforces our long-standing commitment to ESG and BREEAM-level excellence. Our projects are no longer designed simply as living spaces, but as high-performance ecosystems.

At Acciona, we are prepared to absorb the necessary upfront costs associated with these innovations because we recognise that market value is inextricably linked to sustainability. We are building for a future where a property's ecological footprint is as vital to its valuation as its location.

What are the main financing challenges you anticipate in 2026, and how is Acciona planning to address them compared with recent years?

In 2026, the financing landscape for the residential sector has shifted from the liquidity concerns of previous years toward a focus on capital efficiency and selective credit quality. While benchmark interest rates have stabilised, we anticipate that the primary challenges will centre on stricter lender scrutiny and the increasing fiscal sensitivity of the Polish market.

Key financing challenges for 2026 include:

• Heightened Credit Selectivity: Banks remain highly disciplined regarding leverage and pre-sale requirements. Financial institutions are favoring well-capitalized sponsors and projects located in core, liquid urban markets.
• The 'Green' Requirement: ESG screening has evolved into a 'hard' lending criterion. Lenders now expect credible, taxonomy-aligned features and high energy performance as a prerequisite for competitive funding.
• Macro-Fiscal Sensitivity: Markets remain sensitive to Poland's broader fiscal trajectory, which continues to influence risk appetite and the overall cost of capital for developers.

Acciona is addressing these challenges by leaning into our global institutional strengths and long-term track record in Poland.

Ultimately, the 2026 environment favours experienced, long-term players. By focusing on strong fundamentals in top-tier markets like Warsaw or Tri-City, Acciona is turning financing challenges into a competitive advantage.

How will government policy and regulation influence residential supply and housing affordability in 2026? What specific changes would you like to see?

In 2026, government policy remains the most decisive factor influencing both residential supply and long-term affordability in Poland. While recent debates have focused heavily on demand-side subsidies, these programs often create 'boom-bust' dynamics and market volatility. At Acciona, we believe that true affordability can only be achieved by addressing the structural bottlenecks on the supply side.

The regulatory environment continues to be the primary hurdle. Ongoing revolutionary modification of planning law, inconsistent zoning interpretations, and administrative delays directly dictate how quickly and cost-effectively we can deliver new housing. To move toward a more mature market, we need a shift from episodic support to a stable, long-term housing strategy.

The specific changes we would like to see in 2026 include:

• New Planning Law: we are facing a ‘revolutionary' reform of planning and special development law, posing a significant challenge for local government units responsible for planning and permitting. Having strict deadlines set in EU agreed National Recovery Program, this law imposed approval of General Plans by August 2026, regardless of the level of preparation of these governments nationwide.
• Streamlined Administrative Procedures: Faster, more predictable permitting with clear timelines and fewer procedural bottlenecks. This transparency would lower development risk and allow for a more even flow of new housing in key urban centres.
• Consistent Planning & Zoning: Uniform interpretation of technical requirements and zoning rules across various municipalities to provide developers with the cost certainty needed for long-term planning.
• Targeted Green Incentives: Rather than simple demand stimulus, stable rules-based support for energy-efficient housing should be set up. Aligning these incentives with EU objectives ensures that sustainable solutions are rewarded throughout the building's entire life cycle.

Ultimately, the most effective 'affordability lever' is a sustained increase in deliverable supply. By focusing on legislative predictability rather than short-term demand spikes, the government can help narrow the structural housing gap and support real, long-term improvements for Polish households.

Which markets or locations within Poland will Acciona prioritise for its 2026 pipeline, and what drives those choices?

In 2026, Acciona's geographic strategy is defined by a move toward demographic resilience and infrastructure connectivity. We are prioritising markets where we are already present and which are Poland's primary metropolitan growth engines—Warsaw as well as Tri-City.

Our selection process for the 2026 pipeline is driven by three core strategic pillars:

• Micro-location Over City Labels: We recognise that performance can diverge sharply within a single city. Therefore, we prioritise specific districts based on their "neighbourhood trajectory"—focusing on areas with improving public transport links, proximity to business hubs, and access to essential services and green spaces.
• The '15-Minute City' Concept: Our goal is to deliver cohesive residential communities rather than isolated buildings. We target locations that offer a high quality of life where residents can meet most of their needs within a short walk or bike ride, ensuring long-term asset value and superior liquidity across economic cycles.
• ESG Scalability and Affordability: We prioritise sites where we can implement our high ESG standards at scale. These choices are informed by rigorous absorption data, ensuring that while our projects are technologically advanced, they remain within local affordability thresholds.

Ultimately, our 2026 pipeline is built on location liquidity—the ability to sell or rent regardless of broader market volatility.

Looking ahead to your planned activity in 2026, are there specific projects or deal types that will define Acciona's year? What makes them strategically important?

Looking ahead, Acciona's activity in 2026 will be defined by high-conviction, execution-ready opportunities rather than passive land banking. We are focusing on 'deal types' that prioritise capital efficiency, risk discipline, and alignment with our global sustainability DNA.

Our core initiatives for 2026 will be:

• Large-Scale, Mixed-Use Urban Regeneration: We are moving toward significant, multi-phase residential communities in core urban locations. These projects integrate residential, work, and leisure spaces, allowing us to revitalise underutilised areas. They are strategically vital because they provide the scale necessary to implement our full suite of sustainable technologies and create resilient urban ecosystems that reflect the future of European living.
• Urban Infill & Energy-Led 'Reference' Schemes: We prioritise well-connected 'infill' sites where buyers value time and quality of life. These projects explicitly integrate advanced green technologies and certifications (such as BREEAM), positioning them as reference benchmarks in their respective micro-markets.

These initiatives are critical because they sit at the intersection of resilient demand, financing attractiveness, and brand consistency. By delivering energy-efficient, performance-led products that align with both lender expectations and the EU Taxonomy, we ensure that our developments remain attractive to both end-users and global investors. From the very beginning, Acciona is not just building apartments; we are creating high-performance urban communities that are de-risked by their quality, location, and sustainability credentials.